{"title":"Real vs simulated home ranges","role":"development diagnostic (seen): looked at repeatedly during development and used for direction checks; not validation (integrator ruling, 2026-09-29)","attribution":"Real data: Sandel A, Lee KC, Angedakin S, Birungi C, Kanweri D, Kalunga D et al. (2026) Space Use Analysis for \"Lethal conflict after group fission in wild chimpanzees\". Zenodo, doi:10.5281/zenodo.18603419, CC BY 4.0; supplement to Sandel AA, He Y, Ren J et al. (2026) Lethal conflict after group fission in wild chimpanzees. Science 392(6794):216–220, doi:10.1126/science.adz4944. Derived statistics and normalized maps by ChimpBench; not endorsed by the authors.","provenance":{"generated":"2026-09-29T20:38:20.147Z","script":"scripts/compare-ranging.ts","compareCodeHash":"df1be7a4feb64eb9","sim":{"profile":"field","params":{},"registry":"b0af4fa0b6968d2f","simCodeHash":"9373b6afe1b6fd4e","currentSimCodeHash":"9373b6afe1b6fd4e","seeds":[48,7,21,5,11],"yearsSampled":3,"burnInDays":180,"samplerSeed":12,"bandwidthM":[{"seed":48,"h":141},{"seed":7,"h":128},{"seed":21,"h":137},{"seed":5,"h":140},{"seed":11,"h":134}],"communitySizes":[{"seed":48,"year":0,"community":"West","alive":23,"mature":15},{"seed":48,"year":0,"community":"East","alive":17,"mature":12},{"seed":48,"year":0,"community":"North","alive":11,"mature":8},{"seed":48,"year":1,"community":"West","alive":24,"mature":15},{"seed":48,"year":1,"community":"East","alive":19,"mature":12},{"seed":48,"year":1,"community":"North","alive":12,"mature":8},{"seed":48,"year":2,"community":"West","alive":25,"mature":14},{"seed":48,"year":2,"community":"East","alive":20,"mature":12},{"seed":48,"year":2,"community":"North","alive":12,"mature":8},{"seed":7,"year":0,"community":"West","alive":23,"mature":16},{"seed":7,"year":0,"community":"East","alive":16,"mature":11},{"seed":7,"year":0,"community":"North","alive":12,"mature":8},{"seed":7,"year":1,"community":"West","alive":23,"mature":16},{"seed":7,"year":1,"community":"East","alive":18,"mature":11},{"seed":7,"year":1,"community":"North","alive":12,"mature":9},{"seed":7,"year":2,"community":"West","alive":25,"mature":16},{"seed":7,"year":2,"community":"East","alive":18,"mature":10},{"seed":7,"year":2,"community":"North","alive":15,"mature":9},{"seed":21,"year":0,"community":"West","alive":23,"mature":16},{"seed":21,"year":0,"community":"East","alive":16,"mature":11},{"seed":21,"year":0,"community":"North","alive":12,"mature":8},{"seed":21,"year":1,"community":"West","alive":26,"mature":17},{"seed":21,"year":1,"community":"East","alive":18,"mature":11},{"seed":21,"year":1,"community":"North","alive":10,"mature":7},{"seed":21,"year":2,"community":"West","alive":27,"mature":17},{"seed":21,"year":2,"community":"East","alive":18,"mature":10},{"seed":21,"year":2,"community":"North","alive":11,"mature":7},{"seed":5,"year":0,"community":"West","alive":22,"mature":16},{"seed":5,"year":0,"community":"East","alive":16,"mature":11},{"seed":5,"year":0,"community":"North","alive":11,"mature":7},{"seed":5,"year":1,"community":"West","alive":22,"mature":15},{"seed":5,"year":1,"community":"East","alive":18,"mature":11},{"seed":5,"year":1,"community":"North","alive":12,"mature":8},{"seed":5,"year":2,"community":"West","alive":25,"mature":15},{"seed":5,"year":2,"community":"East","alive":19,"mature":11},{"seed":5,"year":2,"community":"North","alive":12,"mature":8},{"seed":11,"year":0,"community":"West","alive":22,"mature":15},{"seed":11,"year":0,"community":"East","alive":15,"mature":11},{"seed":11,"year":0,"community":"North","alive":13,"mature":9},{"seed":11,"year":1,"community":"West","alive":24,"mature":15},{"seed":11,"year":1,"community":"East","alive":19,"mature":12},{"seed":11,"year":1,"community":"North","alive":13,"mature":9},{"seed":11,"year":2,"community":"West","alive":23,"mature":14},{"seed":11,"year":2,"community":"East","alive":18,"mature":11},{"seed":11,"year":2,"community":"North","alive":14,"mature":9}],"sampling":"Each mature simulated individual-year (age ≥ the real minimum, 12 y) receives the sampling schedule (days of year and clock times) of a random real individual-year of the same sex; positions are read at those 15-min clock times; the individual-year keeps the fixes in its majority community; then the real filter (≥ 30 fixes over ≥ 4 months).","runsReduced":null},"gapHoursMedian":{"real":3.75,"sim":3.75},"real":{"fixes":166826,"individuals":162,"individualYears":1271,"years":[2011,2023],"bandwidthM":419,"daysWith1Fix":34756,"daysWith2Fixes":66035}},"method":{"projection":"WGS84 → UTM 36N (EPSG:32636) for real fixes; the simulation is already in metres.","kernel":"Bivariate normal kernel, fixed h = median over individual-years of mean(sd x, sd y)·n^(−1/6) (per dataset: real; each sim seed); 100-node grid over each study-year extended by its span (adehabitatHR kernelUD grid = 100, extent = 1, same4all = TRUE).","isopleths":"Volume UD; 95% and 50% areas by cell count; r = √(A95/π).","overlap":"Bhattacharyya affinity over the whole grid (kerneloverlaphr \"BA\").","split":"Ward (ward.D2) two-group cut of 1 − BA per year; real groups labelled West/Central by majority of network-cluster membership that year.","normalization":"Each UD centred on its 95% use-weighted centroid, scaled by r, rotated to principal axes, reflected so the longer tails point to +u, +v; sampled on a 40 × 40 grid over ±2.5 r.","notMirrored":"Hartigan dip test, Gaussian mixtures and ARI of the notebook are not computed; bimodality coefficient only.","fieldClock":"The archive DateTime values carry \"Z\" but are local field times written from a US Central session; rendering them in America/Chicago puts all 166,826 fixes in 08:00–17:59 on their GPS_date."},"verdictRules":"Scalar: similar if the sim median lies inside the range of real annual medians; different if no seed does; otherwise inconclusive. Distribution / map: distance ≤ the largest real leave-one-year-out distance is similar, > 2× it is different, otherwise inconclusive. Fewer than 5 seeds: inconclusive.","caveats":["Different communities: Ngogo had ~200 members and > 30 adult males by 2015 (Sandel & Watts 2021) and is the largest known community; the simulated communities hold 12–22 members by design, so absolute areas are not expected to match Ngogo. For a 22-member community the literature band is 5–16 km² (T-RNG-1).","Real fixes come from focal follows: which individuals and days were followed reflects field effort. The simulation copies whole real schedules (days, clock times, fixes per day) but draws the individual at random and does not reproduce party co-sampling.","The 1–2 fixes/day subsample cannot measure daily path length, step lengths, turning angles, straightness or patrols (PROVENANCE.md); only the displacement between two same-day fixes ≥ 3 h apart is a movement measure here.","Real: 13 years (2011–2023), fission in 2015–2018. Sim: 3 years per seed after a 180-day burn-in, so year-to-year statistics rest on 2 transition(s) per community per seed.","Measured ranges come from simulated positions, not from the simulation's own range bookkeeping (troop.range, a utilization grid with a 180-day memory seeded from nominal circles), which can lag actual use.","The simulation is under active development (stage C6, territories); these results hold for the sim code hash and registry recorded in provenance. Re-run with the same command after changes."],"privacy":"No coordinates, positions, names or orientations: maps are centred, scaled by range radius, rotated and reflected; statistics are areas, ratios and distances in range radii.","scorecard":[{"id":"area95","label":"Individual 95% kernel area","unit":"km²","level":"individual-year","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":16.9338,"lo":15.522,"hi":19.2448,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":1271,"preFission":16.4317},"sim":{"value":1.7632,"lo":1.4712,"hi":1.8181,"seeds":[1.8087,1.4923,1.8181,1.7632,1.4712],"n":522},"dist":0.1041,"verdict":"different","note":"diagnostic, seen: rule 9 chosen after a range-size sensitivity run"},{"id":"area50","label":"Individual 50% (core) kernel area","unit":"km²","level":"individual-year","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":3.8226,"lo":3.0949,"hi":4.5277,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":1271,"preFission":3.4512},"sim":{"value":0.4199,"lo":0.378,"hi":0.4476,"seeds":[0.4476,0.378,0.4408,0.4199,0.3891],"n":522},"dist":0.1098,"verdict":"different","note":"diagnostic, seen: rule 9 chosen after a range-size sensitivity run"},{"id":"area95M","label":"Individual 95% kernel area, males","unit":"km²","level":"individual-year","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":20.0796,"lo":16.9358,"hi":23.2034,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":564,"preFission":20.4806},"sim":{"value":1.9056,"lo":1.6418,"hi":1.9508,"seeds":[1.9503,1.6418,1.9508,1.9056,1.8546],"n":522},"dist":0.0949,"verdict":"different","note":"diagnostic, seen: rule 9 chosen after a range-size sensitivity run"},{"id":"area95F","label":"Individual 95% kernel area, females","unit":"km²","level":"individual-year","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":15.0588,"lo":13.041,"hi":16.5023,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":707,"preFission":13.7619},"sim":{"value":1.5594,"lo":1.3263,"hi":1.688,"seeds":[1.688,1.4203,1.5594,1.621,1.3263],"n":522},"dist":0.1036,"verdict":"different","note":"diagnostic, seen: rule 9 chosen after a range-size sensitivity run"},{"id":"core","label":"Core fraction (50% ÷ 95% area)","unit":"fraction","level":"individual-year","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.2233,"lo":0.2025,"hi":0.2444,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":1271,"preFission":0.2122},"sim":{"value":0.2528,"lo":0.244,"hi":0.2623,"seeds":[0.2623,0.2559,0.2517,0.244,0.2528],"n":522},"dist":0.0295,"verdict":"inconclusive","note":""},{"id":"elong","label":"Range elongation (principal-axis SD ratio)","unit":"ratio","level":"individual-year","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":1.3445,"lo":1.2183,"hi":1.5488,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":1271,"preFission":1.267},"sim":{"value":1.385,"lo":1.3194,"hi":1.4789,"seeds":[1.385,1.3194,1.3364,1.4789,1.4228],"n":522},"dist":1.0301,"verdict":"similar","note":""},{"id":"share","label":"Individual range ÷ community range (same year)","unit":"fraction","level":"individual-year","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.6489,"lo":0.6103,"hi":0.7393,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":361},"sim":{"value":0.8369,"lo":0.76,"hi":0.8649,"seeds":[0.76,0.8369,0.8544,0.7777,0.8649],"n":522},"dist":0.188,"verdict":"different","note":"Real: pre-fission years 2011–2014 only (one community)."},{"id":"commArea95","label":"Community annual 95% kernel area (pooled fixes)","unit":"km²","level":"community-year","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":25.594,"lo":23.0215,"hi":28.5145,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":4},"sim":{"value":2.0574,"lo":1.8134,"hi":2.3955,"seeds":[2.3955,1.8134,1.9882,2.3717,2.0574],"n":45},"dist":0.0804,"verdict":"different","note":"diagnostic, seen: rule 9 chosen after a range-size sensitivity run. Real: Ngogo 2011–2014 (~200 members, the largest known community); sim communities hold 12–22 members by design. Literature band for a 22-member community: 5–16 km² (T-RNG-1)."},{"id":"commCore","label":"Community core fraction (50% ÷ 95%)","unit":"fraction","level":"community-year","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.2161,"lo":0.1948,"hi":0.252,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":4},"sim":{"value":0.242,"lo":0.2343,"hi":0.2611,"seeds":[0.2611,0.2348,0.242,0.2343,0.2552],"n":45},"dist":0.0258,"verdict":"similar","note":"Real: 2011–2014."},{"id":"ytyBA","label":"Year-to-year overlap of an individual’s range (BA)","unit":"affinity","level":"individual","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.9317,"lo":0.8697,"hi":0.9533,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":1078},"sim":{"value":0.8778,"lo":0.8623,"hi":0.9173,"seeds":[0.8678,0.8623,0.9173,0.8778,0.9032],"n":341},"dist":-0.054,"verdict":"similar","note":""},{"id":"ytyShiftR","label":"Year-to-year shift of an individual’s range centre","unit":"range radii","level":"individual","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.1866,"lo":0.1018,"hi":0.333,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":1078},"sim":{"value":0.2987,"lo":0.2019,"hi":0.3838,"seeds":[0.3838,0.3391,0.2019,0.2914,0.2987],"n":341},"dist":0.112,"verdict":"similar","note":""},{"id":"ytyShiftKm","label":"Year-to-year shift of an individual’s range centre","unit":"km","level":"individual","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":0.4354,"lo":0.2574,"hi":0.842,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":1078},"sim":{"value":0.2136,"lo":0.1464,"hi":0.27,"seeds":[0.27,0.239,0.1464,0.2136,0.2091],"n":341},"dist":0.4905,"verdict":"inconclusive","note":""},{"id":"dispKm","label":"Displacement between an individual’s two same-day fixes (≥ 3 h apart)","unit":"km","level":"individual-day","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":0.6594,"lo":0.4658,"hi":0.7964,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":66035,"preFission":0.5343},"sim":{"value":0.2631,"lo":0.2381,"hi":0.2828,"seeds":[0.2828,0.2631,0.2697,0.2381,0.2542],"n":27459},"dist":0.3989,"verdict":"different","note":"fitted in C7a: tuned against Ngogo GPS. The only movement measure the 1–2 fixes/day subsample supports (not a path length); time gaps match by construction (schedules copied)."},{"id":"dispR","label":"Same-day displacement in range radii","unit":"range radii","level":"individual-day","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.2712,"lo":0.2011,"hi":0.3258,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":66035,"preFission":0.2175},"sim":{"value":0.3522,"lo":0.3172,"hi":0.3755,"seeds":[0.3603,0.3755,0.3496,0.3172,0.3522],"n":27459},"dist":0.081,"verdict":"inconclusive","note":""},{"id":"commYtyBA","label":"Year-to-year overlap of the community range (BA)","unit":"affinity","level":"community","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.9648,"lo":0.9646,"hi":0.9807,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":3},"sim":{"value":0.9341,"lo":0.896,"hi":0.9661,"seeds":[0.9006,0.896,0.9661,0.9341,0.9415],"n":30},"dist":-0.0307,"verdict":"inconclusive","note":"Real: 2011→2014 pairs."},{"id":"pairBA","label":"Mean pairwise overlap among community members (BA)","unit":"affinity","level":"community-year","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.716,"lo":0.6885,"hi":0.8266,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":4},"sim":{"value":0.8792,"lo":0.8477,"hi":0.8987,"seeds":[0.8477,0.8987,0.8961,0.8618,0.8792],"n":45},"dist":0.1631,"verdict":"different","note":"Real: 2011–2014."},{"id":"silhouette","label":"Spatial substructure: silhouette of the best two-group split","unit":"width","level":"community-year","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.7026,"lo":0.6926,"hi":0.7449,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":4},"sim":{"value":0.6167,"lo":0.507,"hi":0.7029,"seeds":[0.7029,0.5099,0.507,0.6287,0.6167],"n":45},"dist":-0.0859,"verdict":"inconclusive","note":"Real: 2011–2014; ward.D2 on 1 − BA as the notebook."},{"id":"bc","label":"Bimodality coefficient of pairwise BA (notebook formula)","unit":"coefficient","level":"community-year","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.282,"lo":0.2595,"hi":0.3741,"spreadOf":"annual medians","n":4},"sim":{"value":0.3036,"lo":0.2872,"hi":0.3913,"seeds":[0.36,0.3036,0.2998,0.2872,0.3913],"n":45},"dist":0.0216,"verdict":"similar","note":"Real: 2011–2014. Pearson kurtosis as in the notebook, so the usual 5/9 cut-off does not apply."},{"id":"edge","label":"Distance of fixes inside their own 95% edge","unit":"range radii","level":"fix","distance":"KS D","real":{"value":0.42,"lo":0.1859,"hi":0.6269,"spreadOf":"10th–90th percentile of fixes","n":166826},"sim":{"value":0.4044,"lo":0.201,"hi":0.6208,"seeds":[0.3903,0.4044,0.4109,0.4052,0.4098],"n":68768},"dist":0.0414,"distSeeds":[0.0249,0.0751],"baseline":0.0937,"verdict":"similar","note":"Baseline: largest KS D of one real year against all other years (0.094)."},{"id":"radial","label":"Distance of fixes from their own range centre","unit":"range radii","level":"fix","distance":"KS D","real":{"value":0.4521,"lo":0.1737,"hi":0.868,"spreadOf":"10th–90th percentile of fixes","n":166826},"sim":{"value":0.4842,"lo":0.1918,"hi":0.886,"seeds":[0.4887,0.484,0.4779,0.4785,0.4923],"n":68768},"dist":0.0486,"distSeeds":[0.0469,0.0649],"baseline":0.086,"verdict":"similar","note":"Baseline: largest KS D of one real year against all other years (0.086)."},{"id":"dispDist","label":"Same-day displacement distribution (range radii)","unit":"range radii","level":"fix","distance":"KS D","real":{"value":0.2712,"lo":0.0378,"hi":0.6444,"spreadOf":"10th–90th percentile of fixes","n":66035},"sim":{"value":0.3499,"lo":0.0199,"hi":0.9022,"seeds":[0.3603,0.3755,0.3496,0.3172,0.3522],"n":27459},"dist":0.1447,"distSeeds":[0.108,0.1744],"baseline":0.1509,"verdict":"similar","note":"Baseline: largest KS D of one real year against all other years (0.151)."},{"id":"mapInd","label":"Normalized individual range map (mean)","unit":"map","level":"shape","distance":"1 − BA","real":{"value":1,"lo":null,"hi":null,"spreadOf":"mass inside ±2.5 r","n":13},"sim":{"value":1,"lo":null,"hi":null,"seeds":[],"n":5},"dist":0.0031,"distSeeds":[0.0029,0.0059],"baseline":0.0037,"verdict":"similar","note":"Each map centred, scaled by r, rotated to its principal axes. Baseline: largest 1 − BA of one real year's map against the other years (0.0037)."},{"id":"mapComm","label":"Normalized community range map (mean)","unit":"map","level":"shape","distance":"1 − BA","real":{"value":0.9999,"lo":null,"hi":null,"spreadOf":"mass inside ±2.5 r","n":4},"sim":{"value":0.9999,"lo":null,"hi":null,"seeds":[],"n":5},"dist":0.014,"distSeeds":[0.0101,0.0268],"baseline":0.0267,"verdict":"similar","note":"Real: 2011–2014. Baseline: largest 1 − BA of one real year's map against the other years (0.0267)."},{"id":"fission","label":"Range divergence after a community fission","unit":"BA","level":"community","distance":"none","real":{"value":0.3536,"lo":0.3139,"hi":0.7699,"spreadOf":"West–Central pooled-range BA, all years","n":13},"sim":{"value":null,"lo":null,"hi":null,"seeds":[],"n":0},"dist":null,"verdict":"not comparable","note":"No simulated community split in these runs (fission, objective O6, is not built yet); the real West–Central divergence is shown for reference."}],"maps":{"units":"density per r², u along the major axis, v along the minor axis, both in range 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