{"title":"Real vs simulated movement (Taï follows)","role":"development diagnostic (seen): looked at repeatedly during development and used for direction checks; not validation (integrator ruling, 2026-09-29)","attribution":"Real data: Lemoine S, Samuni L, Crockford C, Wittig RM (2023) Chimpanzees make tactical use of high elevation in territorial contexts. PLOS Biology 21(11): e3002350, doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3002350, S1–S3 Data, CC BY 4.0; Lemoine S, Boesch C, Preis A, Samuni L, Crockford C, Wittig RM (2020) Group dominance increases territory size and reduces neighbour pressure in wild chimpanzees. Royal Society Open Science 7: 200577, doi:10.1098/rsos.200577, ESM, CC BY 4.0. Taï National Park, Côte d’Ivoire: western chimpanzees (P. t. verus), not Kibale. Derived statistics and normalized maps by ChimpBench; not endorsed by the authors.","provenance":{"generated":"2026-09-29T20:17:03.380Z","script":"scripts/compare-movement.ts","compareCodeHash":"cd2aa24c74967b19","sim":{"profile":"field","params":{},"registry":"b0af4fa0b6968d2f","simCodeHash":"3dd6f9c5e4821b59","currentSimCodeHash":"3dd6f9c5e4821b59","seeds":[48,7,21,5,11],"yearsSampled":1,"burnInDays":180,"samplerSeed":12,"partyLinkM":50,"follows":[{"seed":48,"follows":1697,"records":27268},{"seed":7,"follows":1783,"records":27976},{"seed":21,"follows":1724,"records":27782},{"seed":5,"follows":1733,"records":27922},{"seed":11,"follows":1703,"records":27232}],"bandwidthOverR":0.0484,"communitySizes":[{"seed":48,"year":0,"community":"West","alive":23,"independent":18},{"seed":48,"year":0,"community":"East","alive":17,"independent":14},{"seed":48,"year":0,"community":"North","alive":11,"independent":9},{"seed":7,"year":0,"community":"West","alive":23,"independent":18},{"seed":7,"year":0,"community":"East","alive":16,"independent":13},{"seed":7,"year":0,"community":"North","alive":12,"independent":10},{"seed":21,"year":0,"community":"West","alive":23,"independent":18},{"seed":21,"year":0,"community":"East","alive":16,"independent":13},{"seed":21,"year":0,"community":"North","alive":12,"independent":10},{"seed":5,"year":0,"community":"West","alive":22,"independent":18},{"seed":5,"year":0,"community":"East","alive":16,"independent":13},{"seed":5,"year":0,"community":"North","alive":11,"independent":9},{"seed":11,"year":0,"community":"West","alive":22,"independent":17},{"seed":11,"year":0,"community":"East","alive":15,"independent":13},{"seed":11,"year":0,"community":"North","alive":13,"independent":11}],"runsReduced":null},"real":{"records":42385,"follows":2600,"excludedOther":709,"groups":["East","South"],"dateRange":["2013-12-01","2016-10-28"],"units":["East 2014","East 2015","East 2016","South 2014","South 2015","South 2016"],"kernelCheck":{"spearman":0.9097,"medianAbsDiff":8.3471},"territoryRadiusKm":{"East":3.0131,"South":3.1454},"territoryAreaKm2":{"East":28.5227,"South":31.0814},"publishedTerritoryKm2":{"East":[{"year":2014,"km2":29.2454},{"year":2015,"km2":33.5474},{"year":2016,"km2":31.5374}],"South":[{"year":2014,"km2":36.5889},{"year":2015,"km2":28.3992},{"year":2016,"km2":27.2465}]}}},"verdictRules":"Scalar: similar if the sim median lies inside the range of real group-year values; different if no seed does; otherwise inconclusive. Distribution / profile / map: distance ≤ the largest real leave-one-group-year-out distance is similar, > 2× it is different, otherwise inconclusive. Fewer than 5 seeds: inconclusive.","caveats":["Different subspecies and forest: Taï (P. t. verus, lowland rainforest, Côte d’Ivoire), not Kibale (P. t. schweinfurthii). The simulation is parameterized for Kibale, so Taï is a reference for movement structure, not a target.","Taï records are 30-min points of focal follows; simulated follows copy whole real group-days (focal sex and record times), so sampling intervals, gaps and time-of-day coverage match by construction. Class \"O\" follows (709 records) are excluded.","Activity mapping (design assumption): Taï codes only rest / travel / feed; simulated grooming and other social actions count as rest, agonistic actions as travel, via the field observer categories (src/field/categories.ts).","Party size definitions differ (Taï: independents within visibility; sim: 50 m chain party).","Territory kernels: Taï used h = 149 m (plug-in) on all GPS tracks; here real kernels use h = 149 m on the 30-min records (recomputed level vs published: Spearman 0.91), and simulated kernels use the same h/r ratio (0.048).","Sim: 1 year(s) per seed after a 180-day burn-in; results hold for the sim code hash recorded in provenance (stage C6 is changing ranging)."],"privacy":"No coordinates or identities: step lengths, angles, rates, shares and normalized maps only. Taï territory sizes are the published group-year aggregates.","scorecard":[{"id":"travel","label":"Travel share of follow records","unit":"fraction","level":"record","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.2033,"lo":0.1863,"hi":0.2198,"spreadOf":"unit medians","n":6,"preFission":0.2033},"sim":{"value":0.2116,"lo":0.2069,"hi":0.2188,"seeds":[0.208,0.2069,0.2164,0.2116,0.2188],"n":138180},"dist":0.0083,"verdict":"similar","note":""},{"id":"rest","label":"Rest share of follow records (incl. grooming, social)","unit":"fraction","level":"record","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.399,"lo":0.3463,"hi":0.4431,"spreadOf":"unit medians","n":6,"preFission":0.399},"sim":{"value":0.3543,"lo":0.3502,"hi":0.3546,"seeds":[0.3546,0.351,0.3502,0.3546,0.3543],"n":138180},"dist":-0.0447,"verdict":"similar","note":""},{"id":"feed","label":"Feed share of follow records","unit":"fraction","level":"record","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.3977,"lo":0.3408,"hi":0.4339,"spreadOf":"unit medians","n":6,"preFission":0.3977},"sim":{"value":0.4338,"lo":0.4269,"hi":0.4422,"seeds":[0.4374,0.4422,0.4334,0.4338,0.4269],"n":138180},"dist":0.0361,"verdict":"similar","note":""},{"id":"profile","label":"Time-of-day travel profile (07–18 h)","unit":"mean |Δ| share","level":"hour","distance":"mean |Δ|","real":{"value":null,"lo":null,"hi":null,"spreadOf":"hourly travel shares","n":41676},"sim":{"value":null,"lo":null,"hi":null,"seeds":[],"n":138180},"dist":0.0957,"distSeeds":[0.0904,0.1017],"baseline":0.0299,"verdict":"different","note":"Distance: mean absolute difference of hourly travel shares; baseline: each real group-year against the other group-years."},{"id":"stepM","label":"30-min step length","unit":"m","level":"step","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":94.8683,"lo":72.111,"hi":120.8305,"spreadOf":"unit medians","n":22211},"sim":{"value":2.1767,"lo":2.078,"hi":3.5302,"seeds":[2.1078,2.1767,2.6204,2.078,3.5302],"n":73857},"dist":0.0229,"verdict":"different","note":"Straight-line distance between records 30 min apart (10 m bins in the real data)."},{"id":"stepR","label":"30-min step length in territory radii","unit":"r","level":"record","distance":"KS D","real":{"value":0.0313,"lo":0.0033,"hi":0.1436,"spreadOf":"10th–90th percentile","n":22211},"sim":{"value":0.004,"lo":0,"hi":0.516,"seeds":[0.0036,0.0036,0.0042,0.0036,0.0063],"n":73857},"dist":0.4364,"distSeeds":[0.414,0.4449],"baseline":0.0754,"verdict":"different","note":"r = equal-area radius of the group’s 95% territory kernel. Baseline: largest KS D of one real group-year against the others."},{"id":"turn","label":"Turning angle between 30-min steps","unit":"radians","level":"record","distance":"KS D","real":{"value":0.7583,"lo":0.1185,"hi":2.5305,"spreadOf":"10th–90th percentile","n":6565},"sim":{"value":1.0424,"lo":0.0195,"hi":2.9243,"seeds":[0.9836,1.0133,0.9967,0.9924,1.181],"n":9028},"dist":0.1473,"distSeeds":[0.1345,0.1724],"baseline":0.0623,"verdict":"different","note":"Steps ≥ 15 m only (below that the 10 m bins carry no heading). Baseline: largest KS D of one real group-year against the others."},{"id":"pathRate","label":"Path per hour over full-day follows (sum of 30-min steps)","unit":"m/h","level":"follow","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":313.697,"lo":268.6531,"hi":361.7169,"spreadOf":"unit medians","n":663},"sim":{"value":165.3297,"lo":163.8521,"hi":169.8818,"seeds":[165.3297,164.8378,169.8818,163.8521,167.4163],"n":2289},"dist":0.527,"verdict":"different","note":"fitted in C7a: tuned against Taï. Follows ≥ 8 h with no gap > 1 h; a lower bound of the true path (straight lines between 30-min records)."},{"id":"straight","label":"Straightness of full-day follows (net ÷ path)","unit":"fraction","level":"follow","distance":"difference","real":{"value":0.5041,"lo":0.468,"hi":0.5418,"spreadOf":"unit medians","n":663},"sim":{"value":0.2306,"lo":0.2182,"hi":0.2584,"seeds":[0.2306,0.2584,0.2189,0.2308,0.2182],"n":2289},"dist":-0.2735,"verdict":"different","note":""},{"id":"levels","label":"Position in own territory (kernel level of records)","unit":"level 0–1","level":"record","distance":"KS D","real":{"value":0.4572,"lo":0.0782,"hi":0.8803,"spreadOf":"10th–90th percentile","n":41676},"sim":{"value":0.3966,"lo":0.0501,"hi":0.8323,"seeds":[0.3907,0.391,0.4112,0.3966,0.3913],"n":138180},"dist":0.0671,"distSeeds":[0.0592,0.0826],"baseline":0.0722,"verdict":"similar","note":"Near-uniform by construction (the kernel is built from the same records); deviations reflect smoothing and clumping. Baseline: largest KS D of one real group-year against the others."},{"id":"zone","label":"Travel share at the periphery (> 75% level) ÷ in the core (≤ 50%)","unit":"ratio","level":"record","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":1.4229,"lo":1.1919,"hi":1.5537,"spreadOf":"unit medians","n":6},"sim":{"value":1.8455,"lo":1.691,"hi":1.9126,"seeds":[1.8455,1.9126,1.7727,1.691,1.8581],"n":138180},"dist":1.297,"verdict":"different","note":"Taï chimpanzees travel more at the periphery (Lemoine et al. 2023)."},{"id":"party","label":"Party size (independent individuals)","unit":"individuals","level":"record","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":6,"lo":4,"hi":7,"spreadOf":"unit medians","n":41676},"sim":{"value":2,"lo":2,"hi":2,"seeds":[2,2,2,2,2],"n":138180},"dist":0.3333,"verdict":"different","note":"Real: independents within visibility (Taï); sim: independents in the focal’s 50 m chain party (P-SCALE-1). Taï East and South held ~23–27 members in 2014–16; sim communities 12–22."},{"id":"territory","label":"Territory 95% kernel area at matched group size (11–23 members)","unit":"km²","level":"group-year","distance":"ratio","real":{"value":13.6149,"lo":9.2569,"hi":28.7216,"spreadOf":"matched group-years","n":25},"sim":{"value":1.2453,"lo":1.0778,"hi":1.3767,"seeds":[1.0778,1.3269,1.1877,1.2453,1.3767],"n":15},"dist":0.0915,"verdict":"different","note":"diagnostic, seen: rule 9 chosen after a range-size sensitivity run. Real: Taï group-years with that group size (E, N, S; n = 25), yearly kernels (Lemoine et al. 2020). Sim: 95% kernel of each community's follow records over the sampled period, bandwidth at the Taï h/r."},{"id":"map","label":"Normalized territory map (mean)","unit":"map","level":"shape","distance":"1 − BA","real":{"value":null,"lo":null,"hi":null,"spreadOf":"","n":2},"sim":{"value":null,"lo":null,"hi":null,"seeds":[],"n":15},"dist":0.0559,"distSeeds":[0.0658,0.1031],"baseline":0.0858,"verdict":"similar","note":"Baseline: East vs South."},{"id":"hills","label":"Use of hills near borders (S1 Data)","unit":"—","level":"event","distance":"none","real":{"value":null,"lo":null,"hi":null,"spreadOf":"","n":717},"sim":{"value":null,"lo":null,"hi":null,"seeds":[],"n":0},"dist":null,"verdict":"not comparable","note":"The simulation has no terrain elevation."},{"id":"advance","label":"Advance vs retreat at border stops (S3 Data)","unit":"—","level":"event","distance":"none","real":{"value":null,"lo":null,"hi":null,"spreadOf":"","n":625},"sim":{"value":null,"lo":null,"hi":null,"seeds":[],"n":0},"dist":null,"verdict":"not comparable","note":"Needs a listening-stop classifier for simulated border approaches (not built; patrol targets are unscored until then)."}],"profile":{"hours":[7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17],"real":[0.2024,0.2114,0.2069,0.1866,0.194,0.1782,0.1997,0.2014,0.213,0.2209,0.2269],"realUnits":[{"unit":"East 2014","profile":[0.1867,0.2433,0.2246,0.2055,0.2164,0.1582,0.2451,0.1796,0.2148,0.2039,0.227]},{"unit":"East 2015","profile":[0.1838,0.1967,0.1972,0.1649,0.1919,0.1533,0.1761,0.1578,0.2049,0.2118,0.2173]},{"unit":"East 2016","profile":[0.1826,0.2016,0.25,0.2065,0.2342,0.2097,0.2253,0.227,0.2081,0.2236,0.2465]},{"unit":"South 2014","profile":[0.2332,0.2135,0.22,0.2049,0.1908,0.1811,0.1894,0.215,0.213,0.2677,0.2626]},{"unit":"South 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row labels updated after the C7a review (range-area rows marked seen; path per hour relabelled \"tuned against Taï\"); statistics unchanged, regenerated at the next proof"]}
